The question this answers
A boy runs 9:30 at Niwot in late March. What does he run at St. Vrain in early May? What does he run at State in mid-May?
Every meet on this page is at altitude. No sea-level variable. This isolates pure fitness progression — how much faster Colorado kids get from the first big meet of the season to the last.
The three stops
- Niwot Invitational (late March, 5,200 ft) — Early season. Kids have maybe 2–3 weeks of outdoor training. Many are still shaking off rust from indoor or cross country.
- St. Vrain Invitational (early May, ~4,980 ft) — Mid-season. Six weeks of consistent training. Athletes are starting to find their legs.
- State Championships (mid-May, 5,600 ft) — Peak season. The culmination of the spring. Highest altitude of the three, but athletes are at peak fitness.
What we found
We tracked 80 athletes across the 2024 and 2025 seasons who ran at Niwot and then appeared at St. Vrain and/or State. The results tell a clear story: fitness gains from late March to May are real and substantial.
Boys in the 1600m improved an average of 8.5 seconds from Niwot to their best later mark — and every single athlete in our dataset improved. Girls in the 1600m averaged 11.5 seconds of improvement, with 21 of 22 getting faster. The 3200m showed similar patterns.
This is the data college coaches need. A March time at altitude is not a ceiling — it is a starting point.
Note: The 2025 Niwot Invitational was rain-shortened (no 800m), so 800m data is limited to 2024 only. The 2026 Niwot Invite just happened March 28 — those athletes don’t have St. Vrain or State times yet, so 2026 data cannot be included in progression tracking.
Boys 3200m
17 athletes tracked • 15/17 improved • Average: −10.1s
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Su (2025) | Fairview | 10:21.68 | 9:54.67 | — | −27.0s |
| Antheney Herre (2025) | Thompson Valley | 10:00.61 | 9:34.03 | — | −26.6s |
| Garrett Smith (2025) | Holy Family | 9:58.59 | 9:42.08 | — | −16.5s |
| Griffin Mazeski (2024) | Valor Christian High School | 9:52.26 | 9:36.68 | — | −15.6s |
| Benjamin Adams (2024) | Mountain Vista High School | 9:31.65 | — | 9:17.84 | −13.8s |
| Jacob Crisman (2025) | Thompson Valley | 10:06.41 | 9:53.21 | — | −13.2s |
| Kenneth Bolthouse (2025) | Mountain Vista | 10:17.32 | 10:05.09 | — | −12.2s |
| Tanner Smith (2025) | Douglas County | 9:45.99 | 9:34.42 | — | −11.6s |
| Alex Koeneker (2025) | Rock Canyon | 9:52.05 | 9:43.37 | — | −8.7s |
| Jonas Scudamore (2025) | Denver East | 9:34.37 | 9:26.05 | — | −8.3s |
| Ty Forbes (2025) | Centaurus | 10:03.31 | 9:54.99 | — | −8.3s |
| Garrett Sherrard (2025) | Niwot | 10:03.35 | 9:55.15 | — | −8.2s |
| Brett Michalski (2025) | Erie | 9:25.95 | 9:19.48 | — | −6.5s |
| Asher Parsons (2025) | Mead | 10:05.19 | 9:59.25 | — | −5.9s |
| Gabriel Marshall (2025) | Niwot | 9:27.83 | 9:26.88 | — | −0.9s |
| Liam Folk (2025) | Heritage | 9:32.39 | 9:35.13 | — | +2.7s |
| Ewan Kenny (2025) | Fairview | 10:09.18 | 10:17.56 | — | +8.4s |
Girls 3200m
14 athletes tracked • 8/14 improved • Average: −3.4s
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cami McCauley (2025) | Chatfield | 11:47.77 | 11:09.13 | — | −38.6s |
| Eleanor Ottem (2025) | Niwot | 12:02.11 | 11:39.19 | — | −22.9s |
| Scarlett Parks (2024) | Niwot High School | 11:35.75 | 11:24.57 | 11:51.19 | −11.2s |
| Rachel Tilton (2025) | Boulder | 11:29.30 | 11:19.10 | — | −10.2s |
| Zoe Brandt (2025) | Mountain Vista | 10:59.75 | 10:50.15 | — | −9.6s |
| Gabriela Boeckman (2025) | Mountain Vista | 11:16.70 | 11:08.06 | — | −8.6s |
| Julieta Ochoa (2025) | Denver East | 11:45.31 | 11:39.78 | — | −5.5s |
| Ava Ashley (2025) | Erie | 12:21.47 | 12:18.53 | — | −2.9s |
| Brenna Jorde (2025) | Mountain Vista | 11:15.38 | 11:19.98 | — | +4.6s |
| Lilly Brooks (2025) | Heritage | 11:57.31 | 12:04.13 | — | +6.8s |
| Sabina Stroia (2025) | Erie | 11:00.26 | 11:07.92 | — | +7.7s |
| Kylee Hu (2025) | Cherry Creek | 11:03.04 | 11:11.56 | — | +8.5s |
| Noa Yang (2025) | Valor Christian | 12:54.08 | 13:10.21 | — | +16.1s |
| Elise Hagen (2024) | Niwot High School | 11:21.69 | — | 11:39.54 | +17.9s |
Boys 1600m
26 athletes tracked • 26/26 improved • Average: −8.5s
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Gramling (2025) | Douglas County | 5:22.21 | 4:58.25 | — | −24.0s |
| Elijah Wendling (2025) | Douglas County | 4:59.62 | 4:40.41 | — | −19.2s |
| Joshua Shriver (2025) | Summit | 4:30.83 | 4:15.86 | — | −15.0s |
| Jackson Parker (2025) | Longmont | 5:13.32 | 4:59.11 | — | −14.2s |
| Paxton Bueschen (2025) | Longmont | 4:52.93 | 4:39.49 | — | −13.4s |
| Gavin Engtrakul (2025) | Niwot | 4:33.12 | 4:20.63 | — | −12.5s |
| John Mcdonald (2025) | Summit | 4:55.98 | 4:45.37 | — | −10.6s |
| Levi Smela (2025) | Thompson Valley | 4:27.89 | 4:17.64 | — | −10.2s |
| Aiden Ogg (2025) | Cheyenne Mountain | 4:37.16 | 4:27.06 | — | −10.1s |
| Jack French (2025) | Longmont | 4:47.21 | 4:37.85 | — | −9.4s |
| Bridger Decamp (2025) | Northfield | 4:38.92 | 4:29.78 | — | −9.1s |
| Rocco Culpepper (2025) | Niwot | 4:19.24 | 4:10.55 | — | −8.7s |
| Isaac Vasquez (2025) | Thompson Valley | 4:26.76 | 4:19.08 | — | −7.7s |
| Lucas Santos (2025) | Valor Christian | 4:36.05 | 4:28.86 | — | −7.2s |
| Ayuub Hassan (2025) | Northfield | 4:22.69 | 4:15.63 | — | −7.1s |
| Miles Miller (2025) | Longmont | 4:30.49 | 4:23.74 | — | −6.8s |
| Julien Frazier (2025) | Longmont | 4:33.10 | 4:26.70 | — | −6.4s |
| Biruk Begashaw (2025) | Lotus | 4:26.50 | 4:21.38 | — | −5.1s |
| Jack D'souza (2025) | Rock Canyon | 4:28.07 | 4:23.89 | — | −4.2s |
| Colter Thompson (2025) | Rock Canyon | 4:29.99 | 4:25.81 | — | −4.2s |
| Oscar Hageman (2025) | Holy Family | 4:57.22 | 4:53.71 | — | −3.5s |
| Hunter Robbie (2024) | Niwot High School | 4:31.34 | 4:27.98 | — | −3.4s |
| William Wachter (2025) | Mountain Vista | 4:23.20 | 4:20.15 | — | −3.0s |
| Christian Price (2025) | Longmont | 4:54.84 | 4:52.16 | — | −2.7s |
| Porter Warren (2025) | Valor Christian | 4:23.84 | 4:21.92 | — | −1.9s |
| Trent Gabrielson (2025) | Thompson Valley | 4:24.71 | 4:23.10 | — | −1.6s |
Girls 1600m
22 athletes tracked • 21/22 improved • Average: −11.5s
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Mierau (2025) | Mead | 5:38.76 | 5:10.34 | — | −28.4s |
| Alyssa Kintz (2025) | Windsor | 5:51.62 | 5:29.37 | — | −22.2s |
| Peyton Adams (2025) | Mountain Vista | 5:21.89 | 5:00.48 | — | −21.4s |
| Cami McCauley (2025) | Chatfield | 5:33.39 | 5:12.99 | — | −20.4s |
| Hadassah Shiver (2025) | Thompson Valley | 5:46.09 | 5:27.80 | — | −18.3s |
| Elise Wobus (2025) | Fairview | 5:50.13 | 5:34.15 | — | −16.0s |
| Alice Santos (2025) | Valor Christian | 5:45.28 | 5:31.87 | — | −13.4s |
| Alex Lancaster (2025) | Valor Christian | 5:42.12 | 5:29.30 | — | −12.8s |
| Rosie Mucharsky (2025) | Denver East | 4:57.70 | 4:46.02 | — | −11.7s |
| Eden Griebel (2025) | Mead | 6:16.01 | 6:04.70 | — | −11.3s |
| Katie Duarte (2025) | Longmont | 6:21.67 | 6:10.50 | — | −11.2s |
| Elsza Bergen (2025) | Niwot | 5:26.92 | 5:18.03 | — | −8.9s |
| Mattie Sheehan (2025) | Cherry Creek | 5:21.60 | 5:12.78 | — | −8.8s |
| MacKenzie McIntosh (2025) | Holy Family | 5:29.04 | 5:21.33 | — | −7.7s |
| Sierra Wall (2025) | Fairview | 5:13.31 | 5:06.29 | — | −7.0s |
| Mia Binnings (2025) | Cheyenne Mountain | 5:34.63 | 5:27.67 | — | −7.0s |
| Claire Guiberson (2024) | Mountain Vista High School | 5:02.13 | — | 4:55.49 | −6.6s |
| Cecelia Miner (2025) | Summit | 6:00.76 | 5:54.78 | — | −6.0s |
| Juliet Frum (2025) | Mountain Vista | 4:57.81 | 4:51.93 | — | −5.9s |
| Madeline Clark (2025) | Mountain View | 5:13.43 | 5:08.20 | — | −5.2s |
| Lily Dorpinghaus (2025) | Cheyenne Mountain | 5:23.06 | 5:19.10 | — | −4.0s |
| Liberty Ley (2025) | Holy Family | 5:23.37 | 5:23.85 | — | +0.5s |
Boys 800m
1 athletes tracked • 1/1 improved • Average: −1.5s
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayuub Hassan (2024) | Northfield High School | 2:01.15 | — | 1:59.62 | −1.5s |
More from this analysis
- 2026 Niwot Invitational Analysis — Full breakdown of this year’s results
- Altitude to Sea Level: The Colorado Data — What happens when these athletes travel to sea level?
- Methodology — How we collected and cross-referenced this data
Want to see the sea-level effect?
When these same athletes travel to sea level, they get even faster. We tracked that too.
View Sea-Level Data →Next Mile Recruiting helps college coaches find high school distance talent using data, not guesswork. This analysis is part of our ongoing research into Colorado’s distance running pipeline.