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The question this answers
A boy runs 9:30 at Niwot in late March. What does he run at St. Vrain in early May? What does he run at State in mid-May?
Every meet on this page is at altitude. No sea-level variable. This isolates pure fitness progression — how much faster Colorado kids get from the first big meet of the season to the last.
The three stops
- Niwot Invitational (late March, 5,200 ft) — Early season. Kids have maybe 2–3 weeks of outdoor training. Many are still shaking off rust from indoor or cross country.
- St. Vrain Invitational (early May, ~4,980 ft) — Mid-season. Six weeks of consistent training. Athletes are fit and ready to run PRs.
- State Championships (mid-May, 5,600 ft) — Peak season. The culmination of the season. Jeffco Stadium is the highest altitude of the three meets, but athletes are ready to run another PR.
What we found
We tracked 142 athletes across the 2024 and 2025 seasons who ran at Niwot and then appeared at St. Vrain and/or State. The results tell a clear story: fitness gains from late March to May are real and substantial.
Boys in the 1600m improved an average of 8.5 seconds from Niwot to their best later mark — and every single athlete in our dataset improved. Girls in the 1600m averaged 11.5 seconds of improvement, with 21 of 22 getting faster. The 3200m showed similar patterns.
This is the data college coaches need. A March time at altitude is not a ceiling — it is a starting point.
The SL Equiv column shows what each athlete’s best May time converts to at sea level, using our altitude adjustments: -13.0s (boys 3200m), -15.5s (girls 3200m), -5.0s (boys 1600m), -6.0s (girls 1600m), -0.6s (boys 800m), -0.7s (girls 800m). See our methodology for details.
The average improvement shown in each section is calculated from the faster athletes in that event. Athletes who are earlier in their development tend to make even larger jumps from March to May, so including everyone would overstate the improvement that college-level recruits typically see.
Note: The 2025 Niwot Invitational was rain-shortened (no 800m), so 800m data is limited to 2024 only. The 2026 Niwot Invite just happened March 28 — those athletes don’t have St. Vrain or State times yet, so 2026 data cannot be included in progression tracking.
Boys 3200m
| SL Equivalent | Niwot Range (Mar) | Athletes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9:00 | 9:16.3 – 9:24.9 | 4 |
| Under 9:10 | 9:16.3 – 9:40.6 | 9 |
| Under 9:20 | 9:16.3 – 9:40.6 | 12 |
Average improvement for athletes under 9:45: 10.8 seconds • 27/27 improved
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement | SL Equiv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryder Keeton (2025) | Niwot | 9:23.47 | — | 9:02.44 | −21.0s | 8:49.44 |
| Hunter Robbie (2025) | Niwot | 9:16.29 | — | 9:03.40 | −12.9s | 8:50.40 |
| Jonas Scudamore (2024) | Denver East | 9:24.94 | — | 9:12.70 | −12.2s | 8:59.70 |
| Aiden Le Roux (2024) | Cheyenne Mountain | 9:19.60 | — | 9:12.85 | −6.8s | 8:59.85 |
| Benjamin Wolff (2025) | Heritage | 9:23.04 | — | 9:14.94 | −8.1s | 9:01.94 |
| Benjamin Adams (2024) | Mountain Vista | 9:31.65 | — | 9:17.84 | −13.8s | 9:04.84 |
| Brett Michalski (2025) | Erie | 9:25.95 | 9:19.48 | 9:18.75 | −7.2s | 9:05.75 |
| Evan Kear (2024) | Niwot | 9:40.59 | 9:31.95 | 9:21.04 | −19.6s | 9:08.04 |
| Jonas Scudamore (2025) | Denver East | 9:34.37 | 9:26.05 | 9:21.28 | −13.1s | 9:08.28 |
| Porter Warren (2024) | Valor Christian | 9:36.45 | — | 9:24.52 | −11.9s | 9:11.52 |
| Griffin Mazeski (2025) | Valor Christian | 9:28.07 | — | 9:26.16 | −1.9s | 9:13.16 |
| Gabriel Marshall (2025) | Niwot | 9:27.83 | 9:26.88 | 9:31.48 | −1.0s | 9:13.88 |
| Antheney Herre (2025) | Thompson Valley | 10:00.61 | 9:34.03 | 9:48.82 | −26.6s | 9:21.03 |
| Tanner Smith (2025) | Douglas County | 9:45.99 | 9:34.42 | — | −11.6s | 9:21.42 |
| Joshua Shriver (2025) | Summit | 9:56.97 | — | 9:35.88 | −21.1s | 9:22.88 |
| Griffin Mazeski (2024) | Valor Christian | 9:52.26 | 9:36.68 | — | −15.6s | 9:23.68 |
| Garrett Smith (2025) | Holy Family | 9:58.59 | 9:42.08 | 9:49.65 | −16.5s | 9:29.08 |
| Alex Koeneker (2025) | Rock Canyon | 9:52.05 | 9:43.37 | — | −8.7s | 9:30.37 |
| Jake Christy (2024) | Mountain Vista | 9:57.30 | 9:47.42 | — | −9.9s | 9:34.42 |
| Lucas Klein (2024) | Cheyenne Mountain | 10:01.84 | 9:49.25 | — | −12.6s | 9:36.25 |
| Cory Gilbert (2024) | Valor Christian | 9:54.10 | 9:52.53 | — | −1.6s | 9:39.53 |
| Jacob Crisman (2025) | Thompson Valley | 10:06.41 | 9:53.21 | — | −13.2s | 9:40.21 |
| Oliver Su (2025) | Fairview | 10:21.68 | 9:54.67 | — | −27.0s | 9:41.67 |
| Ty Forbes (2025) | Centaurus | 10:03.31 | 9:54.99 | — | −8.3s | 9:41.99 |
| Garrett Sherrard (2025) | Niwot | 10:03.35 | 9:55.15 | — | −8.2s | 9:42.15 |
| Asher Parsons (2025) | Mead | 10:05.19 | 9:59.25 | — | −5.9s | 9:46.25 |
| Kenneth Bolthouse (2025) | Mountain Vista | 10:17.32 | 10:05.09 | — | −12.2s | 9:52.09 |
Girls 3200m
| SL Equivalent | Niwot Range (Mar) | Athletes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 10:45 | 10:43.2 – 11:06.7 | 5 |
| Under 11:00 | 10:43.2 – 11:47.8 | 9 |
| Under 11:15 | 10:43.2 – 12:02.1 | 12 |
Average improvement for athletes under 11:20: 8.0 seconds • 16/16 improved
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement | SL Equiv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emry Schwalm (2025) | Heritage | 10:43.22 | — | 10:32.66 | −10.6s | 10:17.16 |
| Juliet Frum (2024) | Mountain Vista | 10:48.50 | — | 10:42.65 | −5.9s | 10:27.15 |
| Zoe Brandt (2025) | Mountain Vista | 10:59.75 | 10:50.15 | 10:49.14 | −10.6s | 10:33.64 |
| Zoe Brandt (2024) | Mountain Vista | 11:06.68 | 10:56.00 | 11:04.75 | −10.7s | 10:40.50 |
| Elise Hagen (2025) | Niwot | 11:01.53 | — | 10:57.02 | −4.5s | 10:41.52 |
| Reese Tucker (2024) | Chatfield | 11:23.00 | 11:02.86 | — | −20.1s | 10:47.36 |
| Gabriela Boeckman (2025) | Mountain Vista | 11:16.70 | 11:08.06 | 11:22.10 | −8.6s | 10:52.56 |
| Cami McCauley (2025) | Chatfield | 11:47.77 | 11:09.13 | — | −38.6s | 10:53.63 |
| Raegan McRae (2025) | Cheyenne Mountain | 11:14.22 | — | 11:09.36 | −4.9s | 10:53.86 |
| Rachel Tilton (2025) | Boulder | 11:29.30 | 11:19.10 | — | −10.2s | 11:03.60 |
| Eleanor Ottem (2025) | Niwot | 12:02.11 | 11:39.19 | 11:24.24 | −37.9s | 11:08.74 |
| Scarlett Parks (2024) | Niwot | 11:35.75 | 11:24.57 | 11:51.19 | −11.2s | 11:09.07 |
| Julieta Ochoa (2025) | Denver East | 11:45.31 | 11:39.78 | — | −5.5s | 11:24.28 |
| Ava Mierau (2025) | Mead | 12:14.00 | — | 11:44.97 | −29.0s | 11:29.47 |
| Ava Mierau (2024) | Mead | 12:01.13 | 11:45.50 | — | −15.6s | 11:30.00 |
| Ava Ashley (2025) | Erie | 12:21.47 | 12:18.53 | — | −2.9s | 12:03.03 |
Boys 1600m
| SL Equivalent | Niwot Range (Mar) | Athletes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4:10 | 4:16.9 – 4:19.2 | 2 |
| Under 4:15 | 4:16.5 – 4:30.8 | 13 |
| Under 4:20 | 4:16.5 – 4:33.1 | 25 |
| Under 4:25 | 4:16.5 – 4:38.9 | 32 |
Average improvement for athletes under 4:30: 4.8 seconds • 40/40 improved
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement | SL Equiv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Eike (2024) | Valor Christian | 4:16.87 | 4:10.40 | 4:13.47 | −6.5s | 4:05.40 |
| Rocco Culpepper (2025) | Niwot | 4:19.24 | 4:10.55 | 4:12.23 | −8.7s | 4:05.55 |
| Benjamin Anderson (2024) | Mountain Vista | 4:16.54 | — | 4:15.26 | −1.3s | 4:10.26 |
| Joshua Shriver (2025) | Summit | 4:30.83 | 4:15.86 | 4:15.44 | −15.4s | 4:10.44 |
| Jacob Schwarting (2024) | Centaurus | 4:18.61 | 4:15.51 | 4:25.72 | −3.1s | 4:10.51 |
| Ayuub Hassan (2025) | Northfield | 4:22.69 | 4:15.63 | 4:16.32 | −7.1s | 4:10.63 |
| Levi Smela (2025) | Thompson Valley | 4:27.89 | 4:17.64 | 4:25.54 | −10.2s | 4:12.64 |
| Cole Mazurana (2024) | Niwot | 4:27.72 | 4:18.37 | 4:25.39 | −9.4s | 4:13.37 |
| Jonas Scudamore (2024) | Denver East | 4:25.66 | — | 4:18.41 | −7.2s | 4:13.41 |
| Ryder Keeton (2024) | Niwot | 4:21.82 | 4:18.82 | 4:26.84 | −3.0s | 4:13.82 |
| Isaac Vasquez (2025) | Thompson Valley | 4:26.76 | 4:19.08 | 4:23.68 | −7.7s | 4:14.08 |
| Kaeden Dendorfer (2024) | Valor Christian | 4:21.30 | — | 4:19.79 | −1.5s | 4:14.79 |
| Oliver Horton (2024) | Coronado | 4:22.92 | 4:19.93 | 4:21.55 | −3.0s | 4:14.93 |
| William Wachter (2025) | Mountain Vista | 4:23.20 | 4:20.15 | — | −3.1s | 4:15.15 |
| Joshua Shriver (2024) | Summit | 4:21.40 | — | 4:20.32 | −1.1s | 4:15.32 |
| Gavin Engtrakul (2025) | Niwot | 4:33.12 | 4:20.63 | 4:33.34 | −12.5s | 4:15.63 |
| Ben Mayer (2024) | Mead | 4:24.06 | 4:20.98 | 4:22.85 | −3.1s | 4:15.98 |
| Biruk Begashaw (2025) | Lotus | 4:26.50 | 4:21.38 | — | −5.1s | 4:16.38 |
| Boston Potts (2024) | Coronado | 4:28.39 | 4:21.47 | 4:25.11 | −6.9s | 4:16.47 |
| Porter Warren (2025) | Valor Christian | 4:23.84 | 4:21.92 | — | −1.9s | 4:16.92 |
| Cody Wyman (2024) | Manitou Springs | 4:29.21 | — | 4:22.54 | −6.7s | 4:17.54 |
| Cody Kelley (2024) | Manitou Springs | 4:31.58 | — | 4:22.74 | −8.8s | 4:17.74 |
| Trent Gabrielson (2025) | Thompson Valley | 4:24.71 | 4:23.10 | — | −1.6s | 4:18.10 |
| Miles Miller (2025) | Longmont | 4:30.49 | 4:23.74 | — | −6.8s | 4:18.74 |
| Jack D'souza (2025) | Rock Canyon | 4:28.07 | 4:23.89 | — | −4.2s | 4:18.89 |
| Colter Thompson (2025) | Rock Canyon | 4:29.99 | 4:25.81 | — | −4.2s | 4:20.81 |
| Julien Frazier (2025) | Longmont | 4:33.10 | 4:26.70 | — | −6.4s | 4:21.70 |
| Aiden Ogg (2025) | Cheyenne Mountain | 4:37.16 | 4:27.06 | — | −10.1s | 4:22.06 |
| Gavin Engtrakul (2024) | Niwot | 4:31.71 | 4:27.29 | — | −4.4s | 4:22.29 |
| Hunter Robbie (2024) | Niwot | 4:31.34 | 4:27.98 | — | −3.4s | 4:22.98 |
| Lucas Santos (2025) | Valor Christian | 4:36.05 | 4:28.86 | — | −7.2s | 4:23.86 |
| Bridger Decamp (2025) | Northfield | 4:38.92 | 4:29.78 | — | −9.1s | 4:24.78 |
| Jack French (2025) | Longmont | 4:47.21 | 4:37.85 | — | −9.4s | 4:32.85 |
| Paxton Bueschen (2025) | Longmont | 4:52.93 | 4:39.49 | — | −13.4s | 4:34.49 |
| Elijah Wendling (2025) | Douglas County | 4:59.62 | 4:40.41 | — | −19.2s | 4:35.41 |
| John Mcdonald (2025) | Summit | 4:55.98 | 4:45.37 | — | −10.6s | 4:40.37 |
| Christian Price (2025) | Longmont | 4:54.84 | 4:52.16 | — | −2.7s | 4:47.16 |
| Oscar Hageman (2025) | Holy Family | 4:57.22 | 4:53.71 | — | −3.5s | 4:48.71 |
| Nicholas Gramling (2025) | Douglas County | 5:22.21 | 4:58.25 | — | −24.0s | 4:53.25 |
| Jackson Parker (2025) | Longmont | 5:13.32 | 4:59.11 | — | −14.2s | 4:54.11 |
Girls 1600m
| SL Equivalent | Niwot Range (Mar) | Athletes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4:50 | 4:56.4 – 5:04.0 | 6 |
| Under 5:00 | 4:56.4 – 5:21.9 | 11 |
| Under 5:10 | 4:56.4 – 5:38.8 | 21 |
| Under 5:20 | 4:56.4 – 5:38.8 | 26 |
Average improvement for athletes under 5:30: 7.0 seconds • 35/35 improved
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement | SL Equiv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosie Mucharsky (2025) | Denver East | 4:57.70 | 4:46.02 | 4:54.48 | −11.7s | 4:40.02 |
| Juliet Frum (2025) | Mountain Vista | 4:57.81 | 4:51.93 | 4:55.89 | −5.9s | 4:45.93 |
| Emily Cohen (2025) | Cherry Creek | 4:56.40 | — | 4:52.07 | −4.3s | 4:46.07 |
| Emily Cohen (2024) | Cherry Creek | 5:03.99 | — | 4:53.81 | −10.2s | 4:47.81 |
| Keeghan Edwards (2024) | Mountain Vista | 5:02.36 | 4:53.95 | 5:03.65 | −8.4s | 4:47.95 |
| Claire Guiberson (2024) | Mountain Vista | 5:02.13 | — | 4:55.49 | −6.6s | 4:49.49 |
| Emry Schwalm (2025) | Heritage | 5:02.07 | — | 4:57.52 | −4.6s | 4:51.52 |
| Ella Hagen (2025) | Summit | 5:03.68 | — | 4:58.83 | −4.9s | 4:52.83 |
| Rosie Mucharsky (2024) | Denver East | 5:11.33 | — | 4:59.82 | −11.5s | 4:53.82 |
| Peyton Adams (2025) | Mountain Vista | 5:21.89 | 5:00.48 | 5:06.33 | −21.4s | 4:54.48 |
| Kinley Wolfe (2024) | Cherry Creek | 5:01.85 | — | 5:00.77 | −1.1s | 4:54.77 |
| Sierra Wall (2025) | Fairview | 5:13.31 | 5:06.29 | 5:09.81 | −7.0s | 5:00.29 |
| Madeline Clark (2025) | Mountain View | 5:13.43 | 5:08.20 | 5:25.19 | −5.2s | 5:02.20 |
| Ava Mierau (2025) | Mead | 5:38.76 | 5:10.34 | 5:15.32 | −28.4s | 5:04.34 |
| Sarah Perkins (2024) | Niwot | 5:26.69 | 5:10.50 | 5:17.72 | −16.2s | 5:04.50 |
| Olivia Alessandrini (2024) | Niwot | 5:15.50 | — | 5:10.68 | −4.8s | 5:04.68 |
| Eloise Stuart (2024) | Rock Canyon | 5:13.06 | 5:11.43 | — | −1.6s | 5:05.43 |
| Alena Kasanicky (2024) | Niwot | 5:18.53 | 5:12.28 | — | −6.2s | 5:06.28 |
| Mattie Sheehan (2025) | Cherry Creek | 5:21.60 | 5:12.78 | — | −8.8s | 5:06.78 |
| Cami McCauley (2025) | Chatfield | 5:33.39 | 5:12.99 | — | −20.4s | 5:06.99 |
| Taylor Buese (2024) | Northfield | 5:17.81 | — | 5:15.02 | −2.8s | 5:09.02 |
| Elsza Bergen (2025) | Niwot | 5:26.92 | 5:18.03 | — | −8.9s | 5:12.03 |
| Lily Dorpinghaus (2025) | Cheyenne Mountain | 5:23.06 | 5:19.10 | — | −4.0s | 5:13.10 |
| MacKenzie McIntosh (2025) | Holy Family | 5:29.04 | 5:21.33 | — | −7.7s | 5:15.33 |
| Katie Dupper (2024) | Rock Canyon | 5:26.18 | 5:22.85 | — | −3.3s | 5:16.85 |
| Jana Yuschalk (2024) | Classical Academy | 5:24.00 | 5:23.26 | — | −0.7s | 5:17.26 |
| Mia Binnings (2025) | Cheyenne Mountain | 5:34.63 | 5:27.67 | — | −7.0s | 5:21.67 |
| Hadassah Shiver (2025) | Thompson Valley | 5:46.09 | 5:27.80 | — | −18.3s | 5:21.80 |
| Alex Lancaster (2025) | Valor Christian | 5:42.12 | 5:29.30 | — | −12.8s | 5:23.30 |
| Alyssa Kintz (2025) | Windsor | 5:51.62 | 5:29.37 | — | −22.2s | 5:23.37 |
| Alice Santos (2025) | Valor Christian | 5:45.28 | 5:31.87 | — | −13.4s | 5:25.87 |
| Elise Wobus (2025) | Fairview | 5:50.13 | 5:34.15 | — | −16.0s | 5:28.15 |
| Cecelia Miner (2025) | Summit | 6:00.76 | 5:54.78 | — | −6.0s | 5:48.78 |
| Eden Griebel (2025) | Mead | 6:16.01 | 6:04.70 | — | −11.3s | 5:58.70 |
| Katie Duarte (2025) | Longmont | 6:21.67 | 6:10.50 | — | −11.2s | 6:04.50 |
Boys 800m
| SL Equivalent | Niwot Range (Mar) | Athletes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1:58 | 1:57.1 – 1:58.0 | 3 |
| Under 2:00 | 1:57.1 – 2:02.8 | 7 |
Average improvement for athletes under 2:03: 1.7 seconds • 11/11 improved
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement | SL Equiv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William McDavid (2024) | Cherry Creek | 1:57.07 | — | 1:54.31 | −2.8s | 1:53.71 |
| Owen Whitney (2024) | Rock Canyon | 1:58.05 | — | 1:56.95 | −1.1s | 1:56.35 |
| William Wachter (2024) | Mountain Vista | 1:57.56 | 1:57.52 | — | −0.0s | 1:56.92 |
| Grant Fleenor (2024) | Classical Academy | 2:02.80 | — | 1:58.76 | −4.0s | 1:58.16 |
| Ayuub Hassan (2024) | Northfield | 2:01.15 | — | 1:59.62 | −1.5s | 1:59.02 |
| Devon Villareal (2024) | Centaurus | 2:01.06 | 1:59.93 | — | −1.1s | 1:59.33 |
| Michael Webb (2024) | Windsor | 2:02.11 | 2:00.23 | — | −1.9s | 1:59.63 |
| Gavin Engtrakul (2024) | Niwot | 2:02.01 | — | 2:00.89 | −1.1s | 2:00.29 |
| Cade Green (2024) | Wiggins | 2:04.77 | 2:02.68 | — | −2.1s | 2:02.08 |
| Kye Toothaker (2024) | Niwot | 2:04.46 | 2:03.50 | — | −1.0s | 2:02.90 |
| Tobin Duetsch (2024) | Mead | 2:11.90 | 2:05.77 | — | −6.1s | 2:05.17 |
Girls 800m
| SL Equivalent | Niwot Range (Mar) | Athletes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2:15 | 2:15.7 – 2:18.6 | 2 |
| Under 2:20 | 2:15.7 – 2:25.4 | 6 |
Average improvement for athletes under 2:25: 4.1 seconds • 13/13 improved
| Athlete | School | Niwot (Mar) | St. Vrain (May) | State (May) | Improvement | SL Equiv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiki Vaughn (2024) | Boulder | 2:15.69 | — | 2:11.33 | −4.4s | 2:10.63 |
| Julia Rudolph (2024) | Niwot | 2:18.60 | 2:14.20 | 2:14.37 | −4.4s | 2:13.50 |
| Melayna Barclay (2024) | Chatfield | 2:19.64 | 2:15.80 | 2:17.19 | −3.8s | 2:15.10 |
| Taylor Buese (2024) | Northfield | 2:23.86 | — | 2:16.32 | −7.5s | 2:15.62 |
| Cayden Justice (2024) | Niwot | 2:21.63 | 2:19.91 | 2:23.07 | −1.7s | 2:19.21 |
| Alena Kasanicky (2024) | Niwot | 2:25.44 | 2:20.02 | — | −5.4s | 2:19.32 |
| Kendal Bach (2024) | Windsor | 2:27.16 | 2:20.73 | — | −6.4s | 2:20.03 |
| Olivia Alessandrini (2024) | Niwot | 2:24.89 | — | 2:20.79 | −4.1s | 2:20.09 |
| Jessica Derickson (2024) | Mountain Vista | 2:25.19 | 2:21.83 | — | −3.4s | 2:21.13 |
| Giana Atkinson (2024) | Northfield | 2:24.54 | — | 2:21.88 | −2.7s | 2:21.18 |
| Vivian Jack (2024) | Classical Academy | 2:26.86 | — | 2:22.35 | −4.5s | 2:21.65 |
| Avery Eytel (2024) | Summit | 2:25.14 | 2:22.50 | — | −2.6s | 2:21.80 |
| Addi Twete (2024) | Mountain Vista | 2:28.41 | 2:28.21 | — | −0.2s | 2:27.51 |
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